Bitcoin Cycle Analyse: Makro, On-Chain & Swing-Risiko

BTC Price

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Halving

651 days

approx. April 2028

Mining Reward

3,125

BTC currently

Daily Briefing · 07.07.26

Today in the Cockpit

Loading the current market situation …

Stage Accumulation · progress 66.8%.

Since your last visit

Today’s starting point is saved.

On your next visit, you will see a short summary of what changed in Bitcoin, the market phase, and the broader environment.

Technical Overview

Indicator

Live

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Daily Close

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EMA30

$64,814

−6.9%

— · 44d

EMA50

—

PRO

200WMA

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PRO

Macro Overview

BTC Cycle Tracker

Time progress of the current cycle phase

Active Cycle Phase

Peak → Bottom

Accumulation · Day 265 of Avg. 375

70.7 %

Progress

Cross data is loaded from completed daily and weekly closes.

Stage Progress

Stage 1 · Peak Exit

Stage 1 / 4

Peak Exit

Progress

67%

Model State 0 / 100

Cycle-Phase

AccumulationAccum. → HODL → Overheat

Research model for assessing the market phase · not personal financial, buy or sell advice.

Next Event

EVENT

No event loaded yet

Events can move the dollar, yields and BTC.

Latest confirmed result

FOMC Minutes · Aug 19, 2026

Ist: FOMC minutes released · hawkish tone

More hawkish than expected · tends to be negative for BTC

Newer event still awaiting a confirmed result: US NFP / Payrolls · Jul 3, 2026

Swing Allocation

PRO

Setup available in Pro

Baseline-Indicators

Individual indicators are grouped by theme. Tap a gauge; the small + shows that signals and details are available underneath.

Primary signal2 domains

Overall picture

Headwind

6 / 100

PRO

Assessment

Trend & Momentum is currently rated schwach. Open this gauge and the 200WMA distance as the Free demo; the other topic blocks are Pro.

Trend · 30 %

Weak11/100

Valuation · 20 %

Fair—

Macro · 15 %

Mixed—

Risk Appetite · 25 %

Risk-off0/100

Miners · 10 %

Stable—

The overall-picture gauge combines only the five primary topic blocks. The cycle stage deliberately stays outside so the same information is not weighted twice.

Trend & Momentum · 30%

Valuation & On-Chain · 20%

PRO

Liquidity & Macro · 15%

PRO

Risk Appetite & Relative Strength · 25%

PRO

Network & Miners · 10%

PRO

Trend & Momentum · 30%

Valuation & On-Chain · 20%

PRO

Liquidity & Macro · 15%

PRO

Risk Appetite & Relative Strength · 25%

PRO

Network & Miners · 10%

PRO

Data live

All relevant data channels are available without material freshness restrictions.

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